Pirates 7 Brewers 3

I did not see that coming. The Pirates finally made it past the fifth inning while keeping the game interesting. But of course they couldn't hold their 2-1 lead, giving up a solo HR in the sixth and eighth innings, which put the Bucs down 3-2 heading into the ninth inning against Trevor Hoffman, the all-time saves leader. But the Pirates crushed Hoffman, who is over the hill at this point in his career.

I'm not all that surprised by the Pirates late-innings theatrics. This team, as terrible as they've been in the past ten days, has shown a propensity for not going down easy (that is, unless it's the third inning and they are already down six runs). That and a combination of luck have led to their stellar record in close games (+/- 3 runs).

I don't want to act too excited, but this was a huge win for the Bucs. It snaps a seven game skid, but more importantly, it snaps a 22-game losing streak at Miller Park in Milwaukee. I still wouldn't say the Pirates broke out by any means (the early season plate patience is still no where to be found), but they've been squaring up the ball a whole lot more of late, which should eventually lead to more runs. Just a few more notes:

Jeff Karstens isn't anything special, but he threw strikes for the most part, and was able to strand runners, which you can either chalk up to making a good pitch when he needed to and also a little bit of luck (which the Pirates have been lacking of late). I wouldn't expect that type of quality start from Jeff every time he takes the mound (especially given the big three numbers; 1 HR, 4 K, 4BB), but with the way the Pirates pitching has been of late, I'll take it.

Andy LaRoche is on an absolute tear right now, but most of it is due to luck. You just simply cannot sustain his LD% (42.4%!), and he's sneaking a lot of ground balls in between fielders. But he's squaring up a ton of balls while avoiding his major vice, pop-ups. He's gotta start hitting for power, but I'll take the base hits for now.

I make no bones on how I've soured on Ryan Doumit, but I would love to be proven wrong and for him to absolutely rip the cover off the ball. As long as he is staying back and driving the ball to the opposite field, I'll always enjoy watching him hit. But when he rolls over the ball continually and grounds out to first/second... nothing gets me as riled up as when Doumit does that.

There's probably more I can say, but I don't wanna pass too much judgment on just one game. Let's just enjoy this one for as long as we can, which is probably only about 12 hours, as the Bucs play a business man's special against the Brewers at 1 pm tomorrow. So if you're unemployed like me, enjoy!

Why?

I'm really trying to understand why I watch Pirates games anymore. I went to a bar with my uncle to catch the Pirates game along with the Red Wings/Coyotes game. It was all down hill from there. The Pirates are fucking terrible, I can't stand to watch them... once the games start. Before the game, I'm telling myself, this could be it, they'll turn it around here, Morton can't be this bad, the Bucco bats are this close to breaking out...

They are fucking terrible.

UPDATE: The Pirates are still terrible, but I should probably avoid posting immediately following a game; too much boiling frustration (I wanted to put my head through a wall when Aki Iwamura was doubled off first base on a pop-up in the top of the first inning today; it's the major leagues, who does that?). I think part of it is the terrible play all around. The last six games have all followed the same pattern of pathetic performance right from the get-go; they haven't even had a lead or been close in any of the games. And it's not just one thing; it's everything.

But these are the Pirates; I should expect this, right? Well, no, not really. Usually, in the beginning of the season, the Bucs play well while I really don't care because I know it will taper off as there isn't enough talent to sustain a .500 season. So usually by the time the Pirates are playing terrible baseball (August/September) I know it doesn't matter because it's such an experiment at that point.

The fact that the Pirates are currently playing like they did the past two August/Septembers has been extremely frustrating because I'm just not used to it, but maybe I should give them a break since, for the most part, the Pirates are starting the season as an experiment. There are a ton of question marks on this team all around and for the most part, everyone has bombed or been injured (actually, I can't think of one positive surprise performance so far from the major league level... Garrett Jones is still drawing walks?), which has directly led to this terrible start. It's amazing how terrible everything has gone; it can only get better, right?

And that is my thought process as I sit down every night to watch this team, which is also why I get so distraught when the score is 5-1 by the third inning. So I'll continue to watch, and most likely continue to be posting profanity laced reactions from 10-3 beatings like we took today (the Pirates collected 14 hits today, but only one extra base hit; that is confounding. The Pirates wOBA in the past seven days is a flabbergasting .246). I have little else to do with my life, but please be patient with me while I'm patient with this team.

Thanks.

PS - If you would like to commiserate with other Pirate fans, BucsDugout is the place for you. My favorite line comes from biggyv, "It's sayin something... when the best Pirates-related news of the week is that Chris Jakubauskas didn't die."

Also, this is a nice summary of what Huntington has accomplished since he took over. As I've said before, the plan is right, but what it comes down to is whether the guys making the decisions are game. So far, it looks like not. The guys they are bringing in have talent, but clearly are missing that major league gene in order to carry it over to the show...

No More Game at Mellon for Me

I am now 0-2 in this years playoffs, which is quite the opposite of where I was last May when I brought the Cup home with me from Detroit. Despite my lackluster record in the past week, I'm pretty sure Thursday was my last game at the Igloo either way. We've had some good times, and what better way to go out than a triple overtime game, which ended up being the second longest game in Igloo history. Although, it would have been nice to get a W. I don't think there is anything more deflating than losing a multiple overtime game at home; it's such a bummer. But we did get our money's worth.

Recap here, here, and here; my own thoughts boil down to one thing, Leclaire stole this one from us. It happens every now and then in the playoffs when a no-name goalie plays the game(s) of their life and stave off elimination ferrabit. Lets hope in this case that it was just one game. Game 6 is tonight at Scotiabank Place in Ottawa (7/FSN). Let's end it tonight and once again avoid seeing a handshake at home for the first time since Marian Hossa was a Pen.

I haven't commented on the Buccos since the Earth Day Massacre. Pat at WHYGAVS kind of sums it up for me; I know that's lazy, but if my comments from the last post (which was written while I was watching that game) can be taken as anything, I really don't want to bring this up again. I had the same reaction for about 24 hours after the game. I was going to the Pens game, so I had something to keep my mind off of it, but everybody going to the game with me, along with a few of my friends who texted me had the same thing to say, "20-0?"

See, most people whp know me, don't know anybody else who follows the Bucs this closely, so I'm sort of the go-to-guy for all things Buccos. I'm not trying to brag about this, if you think about it, it's pretty pathetic. But I'm that guy. So when I was being given the business about this historic loss, I wanted to say all the right things (it's just one game, it's a long season, this is an evaluation year, the Brewers are a really good team, etc...), but all I could do was shake my head and say, "I don't wanna talk about it." Yeah, it was a lame answer, but it was actually how I felt. I just didn't wanna talk about it. Best to give me a few days to think about what this really meant.

I had been wavering back and forth between posting how disappointing these first few weeks have been for the Pirates. It sort of boiled over in that italicized rant during the massacre. The pitching has been terrible, the offense has been just as bad, and fundamentally, they've lost any semblance of concentration (Delwyn Young is an absolute mess over at third base). But as much as I want to abandon ship, the more I thought about it, the less it mattered. It is just one game (or one series, because it was a terrible three games), I'm not expecting great things from this season, and things are bound to turn around. If the Buccos continue at this pace (run differential wise) until game 50, then it's time to hit the panic button. But we're still in April, so relax, and just hope things turn around.

Although last night was a kick in the nuts, as we finally lost a close game mostly due to luck. The Pirates pitched better and hit better, but sometimes they fall and sometimes they don't, which is why one run games even out over the season. Tonight could get worse as Chris Jako goes to the mound to face Wandy Rodriguez, who usually mows down the Bucs.

The Steelers did what they always do during the draft, nothing exciting but always solid. Anything I say will just be upchuck from the words they produced over at BTSC. The most important points that I took from this draft which make me happy; special teams was seen as a priority and addressed as so, and the Steelers didn't panic into drafting a ton of secondary players (despite what many Steelers fans have been screaming, the secondary is not as bad as people say, especially with Troy back). I say this a lot when it comes to the Pirates FO, but it makes even more sense for the Steelers; Trust the Process.

One last link; I need to start taking anger management classes so that I may avoid this fate ten years down the road.

When the Steelers Mattered

As I'm watching this terrible, terrible team called the Pirates get blown out at home for the third straight day by my least favorite team the Brewers (I didn't get to watch much of the series sweep of the Reds, but I've watched most of this series and a lot of the West Coast trip in which they looked pretty terrible as well; all I know is that I am slowly losing any optimism I had for this team to win 60 games. You can't continue to win half your games by two runs or less and lose the other half by 5+ runs; it just doesn't work that way in baseball. As much as I've seen, this team is horrendous in all facets. I'm trying to stay optimistic, if you ask anybody who knows me I am the most optimistic Bucco fan out there; but this team hurts to watch. To loosely quote Bull Durham, how this team has won 7 games... It's a miracle), I've realized what little interest I have in the NFL now-a-days.

The realization has been sneaking up on me for quite some time, but it really bubbled over in a conversation I had with a friend earlier today. He brought up the draft, which I thought was this upcoming weekend as it has always been. Little did I know that the draft is now a three day event starting tonight and ending on Saturday. Not only do I think this is a terrible idea because it ruins one of the best loafing/drinking Saturdays of the year (many a beautiful Saturdays I have spent watching Mel Kiper's hair as opposed to enjoying the great outdoors), but what really shocked me was my complete ignorance to this change.

Maybe you've noticed my lack of links or posts regarding the Steelers off-season even though it's been one of the busiest in memory, but it's quite obvious that I just don't care as much anymore. When I left for college in the far away ass-backwards land of South Carolina, I followed the Steelers religiously, much more so than when I was in High School.

I didn't think about it then, but I look back at it now as one of the only means of keeping some sort of continual connection to the city of Pittsburgh. Every Sunday I would don my Steelers jersey and sit in front of a TV at a sports bar for three and a half hours. Ironically, I think part of the enthusiasm came from the Steelers drafting a QB in the first round for the first time since I started supporting them. I got a Ben Roethlisberger jersey for my birthday on 9/7/04; Ben would make his first start just 19 days later. Plus I was in college, and everybody remembers how much free time we had in college; lot's of procrastination to look at every Steelers blog and article on the internet.

But since I've moved back to Pittsburgh, not only have the Steelers played like garbage (my first weekend back was the beginning of the five-game losing streak), but my enthusiasm has waned considerably. I'd like to think the reason isn't due to the Steelers play; after all, I watched the games just as intensely as ever and even spent my own money to attend the Green Bay game. I do have a few theories though.

I think being around people that are Steelers crazy (and no matter what people tell you, the Steelers still run this town no matter how good the Pens are) has turned me off. It's so irrational, fanatical, and non-stop. All people have been able to talk about the past few days is Ben Roethlisberger despite our defending Stanley Cup Champion Pittsburgh Penguins playing meaningful playoff games in pursuit of their second straight championship.

Maybe this is why I gravitated towards the Pirates while I was growing up. They were such an afterthought, constantly flying under the radar, and the butt of every joke. Maybe it's the natural inclination of a future yuppie white guy; I can only enjoy things that others don't, I just have to be different.

I know it's definitely because of the Tall Guy, who could give a rats ass about the Steelers for the most part. I think part of that has rubbed off on me.

My final theory doesn't make as much sense because I still think that I enjoy watching football, but maybe I don't. I was watching The Colbert Report yesterday and they had on George Will who was promoting the reissuing of his classic baseball book Men at Work, and he brought up an interesting study that concluded that there is only 11 minutes of real action in an NFL football game. Now he was using this fact as a way to say that baseball is more exciting, which is definitely debatable (for my money, hockey and soccer are the best sports to watch on TV or in person), but I think the fact definitely points towards something I've noticed as I got older. NFL games are boring.

Can you justify spending 3-4 hours a Sunday in order to catch 11 minutes of action? I can't. Yet I still watch the Steelers, and I will continue to watch the Steelers (although I am considering using a DVR more often). But I don't think I will ever be as fanatical as I was for the five years I was in Charleston. I do think that's the reason; a sort of absence makes the heart grow fonder type of thing. My friends, who are still pretty Steelers-crazy, all live fairly far away from Pittsburgh. And who knows, maybe when I move away I'll catch the fever again. But as of right now, I could give a shit what happens tonight on the South Side or on ESPN; my attention is right where it should be for all Pittsburgh sports fans... The Igloo.

(Quick update in the Pirates game. When I started this post, the Brewers were up 4-0 in the second inning and are now up 10-0 in the top of the fifth; I've already told my Milwaukee buddy, "You're my Daddy"; Andrew McCutchen, my only really hope for a Pirate superstar, completely failed to do his job with a runner on third and less than two outs by tapping a meatball of a fastball back to the pitcher; Ryan Church looked at a fastball right down the pipe with two strikes and the bases loaded; and Ryan Braun, the biggest doucher in baseball but an incredibly hitter-- he's the Ovechkin to Pirates baseball, stole third while up six runs... what a douche. It's probably best if I just take a deep breath and stop watching this game, but I probably won't.)

Quick Notes

Most of the people that pay attention to this blog, I was with this weekend; they were able to get the GNJB podcast in person. But I do have a few things to say that were either left out of the podcast, or for the two other people that read this site.

GNJB - It's absolutely absurd that Andy Sutton is still playing in these playoffs. He didn't leave his feet and he didn't have his elbow extended (which I don't think should matter at all, an elbow is an elbow); but immediately following the Matt Cooke hit, the NHL changed the rules mid-season to make sure that there is some sort of punishment for hits to the head. What the 'F was that that happened to Jordan Leopold? He should be banned for at least two games. And I don't even have to mention his douchiness to Ray Fittipaldo regarding a fairly simple question... Talk about not following the player conduct rules.

GNJB - I don't know why everybody is making this big deal about the Bronx cheer the Flower got following his first save in game two (which followed him giving up a soft goal on the first shot of the game). Bronx cheers are for the most part, fairly harmless; and a professional athlete should not care or get raddled following receiving one. But at the same time, since the Pens went to the Cup Finals a few years back, Pens fans (especially at the games) have come to feel like they are owed something. If we let up a goal, or are not dominating a game, our crowd seems to sit back on their seats and expect the Pens to do something in order to get them in the game. That's not how it works; it's gotta be a two-way street, sometimes the team needs to energize the crowd, but most of the time, it has to be the other way around. And it's only going to get worse when they move into that fancy new place across the street (a lot more clients, a lot less fans).

GNJB - Ben's penalty comes down on Wednesday. OFTOT has a good look at the issue here. My thoughts; he's completely innocent of any crime, and therefore really doesn't deserve any punishment per how the NFL traditionally works... But he is definitely a huge scumbag, so I can't really defend him. Two games would work for me; and it's not like we're forfeiting two games, we'll still have a team out there, with a competent QB whether that be Dennis Dixon or Chas Batch.

GNJB - WHYGAVS sums it up best; I don't know what to think about this Pirate team. Due to their run differential, you have to say they are very lucky to be 7-5, and a lot of the question marks are still question marks. But I don't want to come down too hard on this team this early. I'll let everybody enjoy it for now, but this upcoming series between the Bucs and Brewers is going to be huge.

I'll have more later, probably following the games. Got stuff to do.

Pirates 6 Giants 5

Before I get into any of the positives on the Pirates end, I want to address a huge blunder by Bruce Bochy and the Giants.

Your best relief pitcher is usually your closer because he pitches in the most important spots during the ball game, but that doesn't mean your closer can only come in during a game that is tied or in which your team is leading.

The Giants made a huge mistake by not bringing in Brian Wilson to pitch the top of the ninth down by one. Instead, they let some guy named Medders allow an extra two runs (could have been more) that basically lost the game. If the Giants had brought in Wilson to face the bottom third of our lineup, the Giants win this one on Valez's HR. It's that simple and for some reason, managers who are paid to be the ones making the most important decisions during a ball game just don't get this. I would be livid if I was a Giants fan.

On a somewhat related note, nothing proves the save stat to be totally irrelevant than Dotel in the bottom of the ninth. He didn't have his best stuff, and the Giants got lucky on that first hit (pop-up double down the line) but Dotel struck no one out, gave up a HR and two runs, and still got a save, which is a statistic that earns people money (see: Capps, Matt). What was more impressive to me was Evan Meek's two innings of work, and Branden Donnelly's one inning of work with a one-run lead.

All right, enough of my negativity. Despite the Pirates bats completely falling asleep in the middle of the game (they were put down in order for 14 straight hitters, spanning 4 innings in which they saw just 36 pitches; it was pathetic), the started well and finished well, which was enough for 6 runs which should usually win you a game. Paul Maholm wasn't good either (exactly when the Bucs needed seven innings from their starter, Maholm gave them five), he was all over the zone and couldn't get in a ground-ball groove, although he did get some key Ks and outs at important moments. As I said, the bullpen was what won the Bucs the game.

Lastly, what a bomb from Andy LaRoche. I'm a big fan of Andy's (he's got a solid approach at the plate and plays an above average third base) and I want to see him succeed (will make the Bay trade easier to swallow), but I've always said he seemed like the perfect guy for PEDs. Most of the balls he drives (especially to center) never reach the warning track and end up as hard outs; if he could just put an extra thirty feet into those hits...

But that home run he hit tonight was an absolute bomb, and surprisingly, it wasn't a great pitch to drive. Yes, it was a slider over the heart of the plate, but those are the type of pitches you pull over the third baseman's head for a double, not the type you send 420 feet to CF. I was pleasantly surprised and doubly impressed. Let's see if he can add to that as the season progresses.

Too tired to add anything else, but let's enjoy our return to .500 baseball for the next few hours before we may dip back into the abyss.

Strasburg/Owens

As I said earlier, the Tall Guy and I made the 80 mile trip up to Altoona to watch Stephen Strasburg make his professional debut against our Altoona Curve (Pittsburgh Pirates AA affiliate).

I forgot my camera, so all the pictures I took were on my phone, and they didn't come out all that well. This is probably the best one I got of Strasburg from our seats (the Tall Guy really delivered, we were second row behind the plate).

Something little people know about the Altoona Curve; they retired Adam Hyzdu's number:
I'll have to do a feature on Hyzdu later this week, because if you don't know who he is, you probably should. We did get there about a half-hour early, but the traffic was a mess (a few people said it was worse than when the AA All-Star game was at Blair County Ballpark) and the scene was a zoo. But what a great place to watch a ball game. If you've never been there, I'd suggest you take a quick trip up on a lazy Thursday summer night; tickets are cheap, the game is usually good, and beer is cheap (and they have a good selection as well).

I was going to try and figure my way into the pack that surrounded Strasburg's bullpen session before the game, but instead I went over and checked out Altoona's starting pitcher Rudy Owens:
There was just one other guy over there with a Pirates tee-shirt on, and after I took this snap shot, I turned to him and said, "I think you and I are the only idiots watching this guy throw." I was actually excited to see Owens throw; he's a fairly under the radar prospect that you can read about here. He doesn't have great stuff, but he's left-handed, has good movement on a 89-90 mph fastball, and a tight curve ball. His change up has the workings of a good third pitch, but still needs some work. He did well against a fairly mediocre Harrisburg lineup, and I can only remember one ball struck really hard, everything else was either a flair that dropped in, a misplayed fly ball, or a ground ball with eyes.

Strasburg was very impressive, lighting up the radar gun and consistently hitting 96-98 mph. His control was iffy, but his curve ball was just as impressive, sitting in the mid-80s and getting as high as 90. I wasn't blown away (as I said, his control wasn't all there), but you can see why people get so excited. He needs to work on his change up as well, but with his fast/curve combination, he could get major league hitters out right now. I already have him on my fantasy team, so I'll definitely be keeping an eye on him in the next two months, because I think there's little doubt he'll be in DC by June/July.

Other notes: I was a little bummed that the Curve used their "C Lineup" with non-prospects like Shelby Ford (who looked terrible in both the field and at the plate), Jim Negrych, and Miles Durham. The only guys in the starting lineup who I was somewhat excited to see were Gorkys Hernandez (not impressed; he's supposed to be a stud in CF but didn't show me anything that would warrant that type of reputation and he hits like Ronny Cedeno, little bit of pop but way too many swings and misses) and Josh Harrison, who we got in the Gorzo/Grabow trade with the Cubs (has a weird looking body--short with a majority of the weight on the bottom half--and didn't do much else to warrant any distinction).

I did get to see Chase D'Arnaud later in the game, when he pinch-hit and stayed in the game at SS. He didn't do much at the plate (flew out on a first pitch, and then had a nice at bat but K'd to end the game against Drew Storen, who looked really good) and had a few nice plays in the field (caught a line-drive and then doubled a guy off, and also picked a low cut-off throw nicely), but what impressed me most was his look.

A lot of the Altoona guys just look weird because they're wearing jerseys that aren't fitted to their body's (like the MLB jerseys are) and they're also forced to wear their pants high with high socks per the Pirates minor league dress code. But D'Arnaud was the only guy who looked like he belonged (which I'm not sure if that says something good about him, or bad about the rest of the Curve roster), and it didn't just have to do with the uniform, it was how he carried himself. I'm not gonna say the guy is going to be a stud just based on a few innings of pretty much nothing, but I've watched a lot of baseball in my life, including a lot of amateur and minor league ball, and you can always tell who looks like they belong in the first few moments of seeing them. Chase D'Arnaud looks like he belongs.

One last note on Pirates prospects: there were a lot of positive performances this week (Quinton Miller pitched well today and was supposedly hitting the mid-90s with his fastball, and of course Pedro's 3 HR in the first four games) and there were some negative aspects as well (Indianapolis' pitching, specifically Brad Lincoln, and Tim Alderson still only throwing in the mid-80s). I'll have some links up later with much better analysis, but I did want to mention Neil Walker's opening weekend.

Walker actually got Saturday night off, but in the three games he has played, he was 5/12 with a double, but more importantly he has 3 BB and 3 Ks. I know it's just three games (small sample size!), but this is a good sign. Walker has the power and the athleticism to be a solid major league player, but he needs to improve his plate discipline while controlling the strike zone, so if he can keep it up, I'd be very happy. As a former WPIAL baseball player, I'm always pulling for fellow alumni, especially those who play for the Bucs.

Bucco Weekend Recap

So last night I was all ready to scribble up a quick post on how important that 6-3 win was; with Zach Duke's great start, squaring up a ton of Dan Haren pitches, and solid defense... But that joy can only last a few hours, as the Buccos shit the bed today, losing 6-15, including a history-making 4th inning in which they allowed 13 runs.

I went to the Altoona/Harrisburg game today to see the Curve take on pitching phenom Stephen Strasburg, so I didn't get to catch the game, and in fact, I haven't even seen the highlights (hopefully, it will stay that way). So I don't want to criticize too much with out any solid first-hand evidence, but I do have a few thoughts from the past few days.

I don't know if Garrett Jones even squared up a couple balls today, but he saw 9 pitches in 5 plate appearances; that's awful. I know it's only one game, but that's unacceptable in any situation.

Daniel McCutchen was not good by any stretch of the imagination; his one strength never showed up (he walked three in 3.1 IP and only threw a little over half his pitches for strikes) and his one weakness reared it's head (he let up 3 HR and his GB/FB was 2/6). He was terrible, I'm not questioning that, but I am starting to second guess letting McCutchen start this particular game. Why let the staff's worst fly ball pitcher go in a ballpark that balls jet out of to a team full of fly-ball hitters? That doesn't excuse McCutchen's performance, but the more I thought about it, the less sense that made. I would have had McCutchen pitch that Thursday day game against the Dodgers and then sent him down.

Jack Taschner showed me nothing last night to believe he can be counted on at all, and letting up a home run to Edwin Jackson (a guy who has pitched strictly in the AL before this year, and therefore only had 33 career plate appearances before today) did nothing to change that opinion.

Hayden Penn does not belong on a Major League roster right now; he threw 19 pitches (4 for strikes), got one out, allowed a hit, walked 3, and got charged for 4 runs. Think about this for a second; since Penn only threw 4 strikes, but two of them were put in play, he got only two called strikes in 19 pitches. That's ridiculous. I don't have a problem with the move of picking him up and giving him a chance, but he didn't take advantage of it, so now it's time to designate him for assignment (to AAA), hope he clears waivers, and try someone else as the long reliever. There's still a lot to like about Penn (good stuff, pedigree, and still somewhat young), but he doesn't belong in the Majors right now.

Okay, that's enough of my negativity. A few things I liked; a little more power (Aki, Cutch, B. Crosby, and Jeff Clement), Lastings Milledge in the 3-spot (he's been spraying line drives, which is more suitable for the 3 than the 5), Zach Duke turning in the first really good start from a Pirate this season (ground-ball machine, if he strikes out a few more guys I would elevate it to a great start), Octavio Dotel throwing a stress-free ninth inning (I hope the Nationals have been enjoying Matt Capps' iffy closings), and Ryan Doumit going 0-4 with 4 Ks on Saturday (Oh, wait...).

But all is not lost, the Bucs are still 3-3 and head to San Fransisco to take on a team that is over-achieving in the early going (and the Pirates dodge a bullet by not having to face Lincecum). The series starts with Ohlie taking on Barry Zito tomorrow night at 10 pm (FSN).

I'll have a post with a recap from my trip to Altoona (along with a few pics) and a few words on the first week of Pirate minor league ball.

Pirates 1 Diamondbacks 9

Jeebus, was that a terrible game with such a promising start.

The Pirates again got guys on early, but couldn't come up with the big hit (Jeff Clement scorched a ball to the opposite field with the bases loaded, but right at the fielder). Charlie Morton was cruising through the D'Back's lineup the first time around by mostly throwing four-seam fastballs and a sharp breaking ball. But despite what Bob Walk may drool about, you cannot get by with throwing four-seam fastballs, especially against a line up this good (there's a lot of talent in AZ's lineup, mixed in with some guys who could breakout or bounce back; Stephen Drew, Conner Jackson, and Kelly Johnson). It really started with hanging a breaking ball to the opposing pitcher who lofted a lazy single down the line, and then after that, it was scorcher after scorcher that didn't somewhat end until Chris Young blasted a grand slam.

Charlie Morton has exceptional stuff, but when he's not getting ground balls (or even a few foul balls with a downward trajectory), he's not gonna be able to simply strike everyone out. I thought Morton threw a two-seem and a four-seem fastball, but everything tonight looked like a four-seem (which has decent horizontal break, but not enough vertical break to get ground balls). I guess it's just something to keep in mind when watching Morton; no matter how many K's he accumulates in the first few innings, if he's not getting ground balls, it could get ugly quick.

The rest of the game sucked; although I do have a few thoughts.

It was nice to see Hayden Penn get back out there after his terrible outing yesterday. He threw strikes and got a couple ground-balls while breaking a bat. He did get away with a fastball on the inner-half of the plate that Justin Upton skied to second base; I wouldn't try that again against a guy like Upton.

I know it's only been a few appearances, but Evan Meek has been fairly unimpressive; his fastball has lacked the high velocity expected (he's at 90-92 instead of the 94-96 I was expecting), and he falls behind hitters consistently. He hasn't been terrible, just that I expected a lot from him this season and from the early returns, it looks like he may be taking a step back... but it's early.

I'm tired of watching Ryan Doumit hit. I remember when he first came up and the ball just flew off his bat, mostly to the opposite field which made it all the more impressive. Now it's the same thing over and over again; he's either going to roll over a pitch to the same side of the infield, pop up, or hit a line-drive to the same side. He has completely lost the ability to stay back and drive the ball to the opposite field, which is what made him such a special hitter in the first place. I tend to do this with a lot of the Pirate hitters who have been around awhile (even Brian Giles frustrated me towards the end), but it seems like such a shame that Doumit has turned into a one-dimensional hitter. And don't even get me started on his receiving; unbelievably lazy attempts at blocking balls in the dirt.

I absolutely loved Lastings Milledge's attitude towards the end of the game; stole a base despite being down by 6+ runs and scored on the ensuing single (usually a move I would hate, but considering everyone else was sleep walking through the rest of the game, it was nice to see someone with a little energy) and then had a fantastic at bat in the eighth inning in which he worked the count to full, just missed a pitch by popping it a mile high, and then sprinted full-tilt around the bases despite knowing the ball would be caught. I know I may be reaching for positives, but it was nice to see someone look like the gave a damn past the third inning.

If Andy LaRoche looks at another low borderline two-strike pitch, I'm gonna scream (and yes, Pedro did hit another two home runs tonight).

The offense wasn't as putrid as it seems either; they squared a lot of balls up that ended up right at people, but they failed to hit a HR again and have not hit one since the first inning of the second game (26+ innings). That has to change, but from where and by who I don't know.

The Pirates will not win tomorrow night either as Dan McCutchen is facing Dan Haren, but if you're interested, the game will be on at 8 p.m. on the MLB Network in Pittsburgh.

And just like that...

We're knocked off our cloud. Not a good game at all by the Pirates. Thank God it only took place in front of the less than 10k people who were able to make it to the game. I still don't get why the Pirates try and have so many early day games whilst the demand for tickets is so low.

I don't have much to say about this one, except a few reactions to a lot of people jumping off bridges especially when it comes to a few different guys.

Bobby Crosby is not as bad a fielder as people are painting him based on this one game. His first throwing error was Paul Maholm's fault as he was late getting to first on a 3-6-1 double play; the throw was low, but if Maholm breaks to first as the ball is hit (as he is supposed to do), then he'd be able to make the catch and probably get the two outs. The second play was a tough ball to get to in the first place and while the throw was low, it was on-line; Garrett Jones (who looked completely lost at first today, probably because he got no time there in spring training due to the Jeff Clement experiment) took his stride off the bag before he knew where the ball was going and in doing so, was handcuffed awkwardly. I'm not advocating Bobby Crosby for a Gold Glove, but to just look at a box score, see Crosby with two throwing errors, and immediately call him an abomination in the field is pretty short-sighted and unfair to Crosby.

Relax with the "Andy LaRoche is garbage and I can't wait for Pedro" talk. I was just as frustrated as anyone when he looked at strike three for the second time (this time with the bases loaded and the pitcher up next), especially after he missed on tattooing the 2-1 pitch right before (a complete mistake by the pitcher that should have been sent a long way by LaRoche). But it's the third game of the season, and LaRoche has already shown how valuable he is with the glove and his eye (his throwing error last night was pretty bad, and he did go down looking twice this afternoon... but other than that...). It certainly doesn't help the debate since Pedro homered in the AAA opener tonight (nice line by Vinnie Chulk as well), but until Pedro lowers his K rate (he did strike out once tonight as well, although it was in five plate appearances which at 20% would make me quite satisfied) and improves his line against lefties, there is no reason to even talk about him forcing Andy LaRoche out of the lineup. Patience people.

Hayden Penn was terrible and must improve if he wants to stick around, but it was definitely worth giving him a shot today.

Kudos to Delwyn Young for shutting me up about his terrible at bat yesterday. He had two doubles and two walks in four plate appearances, which is really impressive considering his good games last year were more of the three singles in five at bats kind (which isn't terrible, but I'll take the slugging and on-base over average any day).

Other than the Belliard HR, there weren't too many balls that were scorched off of Maholm, with a couple of nicely placed fly balls dropping in here and there (the Furcal double down the line was the one that immediately popped into my head). But that's why it's so important for Maholm to keep the ball on the ground; the more fly balls, the more likely you are to let up extra base hits, including HRs. Maholm also managed to walk a lead-off hitter on four pitches and also issue the pitcher a free pass with two outs; both are inexcusable. And I'm not even going to get into the Dodgers' backup lineup he faced... Let's just wipe this one away, shall we?

The Bucs head out to the West Coast to play the Diamonbacks starting tomorrow night (9:50 FSN). Charlie Morton makes the start, so I'll definitely be watching this one.

Undefeated...

I should probably be posting a lot more as this really is the only time for me to wave my Bucco Fan flag with pride, but between work, SSA baseball, and going to the first two games of the season, I haven't really had a whole lot of time to reflect on the blog. But here are a few of my thoughts from the Buccos' first couple games:

If the Buccos are going to do these Buck Nights, they're gonna have to do a whole lot better job at providing enough personell to take care of the crowd. What a mess it was last night; the line at the ticket window was ridiculous and then when we got in, the concourse was packed with people which made it a pain to get to our seats. I'm usually singing the praises of PNC Park and their staff (I used to work there), but they were wholly unprepared for last night. It was a complete cluster.

Don't be fooled by Ross Ohlendorf's start, it wasn't good. He fell behind in the count, got bailed out by the infield, didn't have a good GB/FB ratio, gave up a HR to Russ Martin (a guy who lost all his power last year), and only got one SO against 3 BB. Just not a good start at all, although few balls were really scorched and he did have some good velocity early on (consistently hitting 93), but he needs to improve.

There were a lot of things that were impressive about GFJ's HR yesterday, but the thing that stood out was it being against a left-handed pitcher. I've bitched and moaned about a lack of a quality right-handed 1B/RF because of Jones issues against lefties, but he hit a bomb off of CC in the spring that was pretty impressive and now this; if he can improve his patience against lefties, he'll be more of an all-around hitter and one of the more dangerous RF in the NL.

Lastings has been the most impressive player throughout the first two games in a Pirate uniform. He's all over the place, making things happen right and left, and really scorching the ball (he's only got two hits 9 AB, but he's squared up a few more than that). To be honest, I was a little frustrated to see him out of the lineup for today's day game with Delwyn Young taking his place in the lineup; especially after Young's first pitch pop-up with the bases loaded last night (terrible AB).

The bullpen has been able to put up some zeros for the most part, and DJ Carrasco looked a whole lot better last night, but they're not going to be able to keep it up if they keep walking guys at this rate. I'm not going to bring up the stats, but they're not throwing enough strikes. Although I love everything about Octavio Dotel.

That was a hell of an at bat from Ronny Cedeno to end the game last night. I'm not the biggest Cedeno guy (he's got zero plate discipline), but he worked his was back into the count by spoiling a few good pitches and then really stung that single over the SS's head.

Aki Iwamura does not have a hit yet, but who cares? The guy is setting the tone at the top by taking pitches, working the count, and getting on base. He saw 33 pitches in 5 plate appearances last night; that's over 6 pitches per PA, which basically means he took every count to full. I know that doesn't impress a lot of people, but as a guy who preaches patience like none other (and has had to watch some pretty brutal Bucco teams in terms of patience), it's music to my ears.

Today's game is supposed to start soon (12:35, FSN), but there's also rain in the forecast, so we'll see. Maholm will do what he does, but it will be interesting to see how these guys hit against Chad Billingsly, who has outstanding stuff, fell off a cliff in the second half of last year, but has apparently turned it around this spring.

Recap for last night's game here, here and here. One last note to all people attending Pirate games; if the game is good (tied late in the game) please do not start the wave. It's bush. Thanks.

Pretty Good Start

I think when a couple got engaged at the tailgate next to us before yesterday's home opener, we all knew we were in for something special. I'm not making that up either; as we were flipping some hot Italian sausages on the mini-Weber, we heard a bit of a commotion at the tailgate next to us (which really put us to shame, they had enough food to feed a small Filipino village). I have somewhat of a sixth sense for proposals at Pittsburgh sporting events, so I was all over it and was able to snag a few pictures. Oh, yeah, and she said yes.

But what a game. Recap here, here, and here. I'm with everyone else, it's just one game, it was against Vincente Padilla (which, according to ESPN insider wasn't such a bad idea against the Bucs; we now beg to differ), and there were definitely some concerns (seeing eye-singles against Duke because of the lack of infield range, D.J. Carrasco's lackluster control, and Andy LaRoche's day in general), but that would be nitpicking. I'm just going to try and enjoy this while it lasts, which would be until the next game (Wednesday at 7:05).

After the game, the Tall Guy asked me what I took away from the game; my final verdict. It was nice to see the Pirates show some patience at the plate (I really like how ESPN's box score now have the total number of pitches faced) and some power, but in particular; Lastings driving the ball to the opposite field with force... twice, and Cutch putting a dent in the center-field wall in his last at bat.

I'm looking forward to Wednesday's game, especially to see how guys like Clement and Jones do against a pretty good lefty in Clayton Kershaw.

But more than anything, what an amazing atmosphere for the home opener. It certainly helped that it was a gorgeous day, but the place was packed and people were into it. It just goes to show how starved the people of Pittsburgh are for meaningful games past May 1st. And it's also why I support the current management, because if they stay the course, I think they can make it happen, which will be the best thing that could possibly happen to the city of Pittsburgh.

Optimism!

While I'm watching the Pens waste a five-minute power play (pathetic display; I think they had two, maybe three good chances in five minutes), I'll brandish you all with a little Bucco's optimism.

First is WHYGAVS second part of their season preview with the focus being on Andrew McCutchen. I was pretty firm on Cutch turning himself into a better outfielder (he put up a -0.7 UZR last season, but I could see him as a legit +5/7 consistently) but not being able to sustain the power surge he showed last year. Pat's post gives me hope that Cutch might prove me wrong in the power department. Let's hope that's true.

And then there is this post from TMI at ESPN (insider only, sorry) that predicts the Pirates winning the division... three times out of a hundred. I like those odds.

Buccos Destroy CC

Suck it, Carsten.

Only the Buccos can find a way to make Alfredo Aceves look like Hoss Radbourn one day, and then make CC Sabathia look like Jimmy Anderson the next day (seriously, look at that 1884 season for Old Hoss, 678.2 innings pitched! No wonder he had someone else comb his mustache for him after any game he started, he couldn't lift his arm high enough; true story).

The Bucs chased CC early from the game yesterday afternoon, with most of the damage done by Garrett "Hot Stick" Jones. As the PG's report indicates, the only real issue with Jones was his immense struggles against lefty pitching this past year (it's actually been a bit of a problem for quite some time). It's just a few at bats, and it wouldn't surprise me if he falls right back into line with his previous performances, but I still don't think he can be that miserable against left handers.

The Buccos play Baltimore tonight at 7:05 and the game is going to be on FSNP! Which can only mean one thing... Live Blog tonight. I've never done one of these before, so we'll see how it works. Tune in at 6:30 to get the full coverage.

And now, what you've all been waiting for...

Bucco Links!

It really makes no sense that I've been so quiet during the one time of year when it's okay to be loud and optimistic about the Pirates. But now I will make amends, which includes cramming every small piece of information down your throat.

So I kind of took Sunday as a put-me-together day, red up the house and do some laundry from a long trip kind of day. But it was a gorgeous day in Pittsburgh, probably the nicest day we've had in months. So I opened up the blinds all over the house to let the sun engulf the indoors, walked around naked, and turned on the Pirates/Twins game on 104.7 fm both downstairs and upstairs (I didn't really walk around naked, at least not all the time). It actually felt like Spring. It also helped that the Pirates finally started hitting the ball with authority.

There's been plenty of great fluff peices coming out from the Post-Gazette, including the very good reports on Tony Sanchez and his impressive home run (this guy seems like one of the nicest guys in baseball, the media is going to love him), Bryan Morris who could really turn the Jason Bay trade around by turning himself around (here's some good words about him and some other observations from a fan who went to a few games), and today's piece about Steve Pearce (who I think would be an excellent choice to play consistently against lefties).

Most of these stories really won't mean shit. As Charlie from BucsDugout pointed out about the Nate McClouth eye-test comments, nine times out of ten, these guys will probably play exactly as we expect them to. They make for a good read and it's nice to hear about Pedro Alvarez locking himself in a gym all winter and losing ten pounds, but it come's down to how they play when the games count.

But until the games actually do count, Pat at WHYGAVS has some things to keep an eye on during Spring Training. Also, if you want a good laugh, here was his delayed live-blog to the Pirates first game against the Yankees that was on MLB Network last week (I actually didn't think the YES announcers were as bad as most people thought).

Here's a good link to a Joe Posnanski post about the rule 5 draft and it's history (which includes some great stuff about Branch Rickey and his use of the rule 5 in the '50s). The Pirates rule 5 pick this year was John Raynor. It seemed like an odd pick; I thought the Bucs would go for a pitcher as they have done with Donnie Veal and Evan Meek in the past two years (you can hide a pitcher on the 25-man roster easier than you can do so with a position player), and since the Pirates actually have some options in the OF at the high minors and the majors, it didn't seem right that they would pick a guy who hit .258/.328/.363 last season as a 24-year old in AAA. But he actually hit much better as the season went on and made the adjustments scouts like to see, and I'm pretty sure the Pirates really like his defense, which translates into a pretty nice fifth outfielder and late game defensive replacement. It also helps that he's been 5-11 with a couple extra base hits so far this spring.

Matt Bandi over at Pittsburgh Lumber Co. has a bunch of really good posts about the upcoming season, which includes a post most of us can relate to, 25 years as a Pirates fan. There's some other really good stuff on there, including the McCutchen extension, plate discipline, and the '09 vs. '10 lineup.

BUCCOFans has your latest Pirate draft prospect roundup. And as always, the best place to go is ESPN's draft blog run by Jason Churchill and Keith Law. It seems like Jameson Taillon is definitely the second best prospect, but the Pirates seem to have a good draft strategy of going safe with a college positional player in the first round, and then piling up on high-school pitchers later in the draft. I'll talk more about this later, as we get closer to the draft.

Titletahn has a good look at some of Neal Huntington's transactions: death matches.

And that's it! Pirates play the Yankees today at 1:05 p.m. I think it is on the YES network, so anybody with DirecTV can probably watch it. But if you really want it to feel like Spring, turn on the radio to 104.7 and walk around the house naked.

Second Time Around

So after posting my morning (afternoon?) links, I realized that I wasn't giving the topics their due diligence at all. What a crap post that was (one of the best aspects of the English accent that I've stolen since watching EPL soccer: using crap as an adjective/adverb... try it out, it's fantastic). Unfortunately, this post will be mostly Pirates related, so for most of you, it will be crap too.

As I was making a fire tonight and using the PG as my starting paper, I realized there was a column on Pirates Spring Training by Gene Collier. I actually like Collier, he's a very good writer. And really that's what it comes down to nowadays when it comes to newspaper opinion columns.

The most informative stuff in sports news now comes from beat writers (in particular the blogs, which many newspapers have set up for their beat writers such as the PBC Blog and Empty Netters), so really, the opinion columns come down to their actual thoughts and the way they translate them. Ron Cook is terrible at both, but Collier actually interprets his thoughts in a way that makes the reader think. But he's not always on top of how things work in present day sports (especially baseball). There's nothing wrong with that, but when he does say things like the Pirates should have signed someone like Jim Thome (has played a total of 4 games at 1B since 2005; I don't care if Jeff Clement has never played first base, anybody would be better than Thome at first) or Hank Blalock (oh please, pretty please sign the oft-injured guy coming off the .277 OBP. Please!). His final suggestion isn't even that bad (Russell Branyan), but Branyan will be 34 next year.

And more importantly, why would we sign someone to block up the already crowded group of RF/1B we have. Clement, Jones, Moss, Pearce, and Tabata. Why the hell would we sign a question mark to take up the spot of another question mark? I would put money down right now that we will get more out of the 1B spot than Blalock, Thome, or Branyon will be able to put up this year. JS.

And now for the other piece of Pirates news that has been sweeping the area. Frank Coonelly said "this is the beginning of a dynasty"... I actually already commented on this a bit, but I just heard the interview he did with Ron Cook and some dude named Vinnie. Coonelly does come off as a jackass by calling up a network that has been in existence for just nine days and trying to defend himself.

But the key for me is that he is defending himself out in the open. Kevin McClatchy used to privately harass John Perrotto after he would write a negative column in the Beaver Times (Beaver F'n Times!) and Dave Littlefield was so generic and PR driven that he could turn shit into gold on a daily basis (something that the PG used to eat up with delight). To me, Nutting and Coonelly making grandiose and absurd statements (by the way, Coonelly did say "to me" at the end of his dynasty comment, which isn't a prediction, it's just his own heartfelt belief) is actually a breath of fresh air.

There's actually more important news like Joel Hanrahan's elbow being okay, Neil Walker's plunge into utility, BUCCOFans news roundup (including just another reason we should not draft Anthony Ranaudo), and WHYGAVS reasearched post about Zach Duke's endurance (spoiler alert: if Duke's curve-ball isn't good, he isn't good).

Unfortunately, I'm too spent to go into why these pieces of information are important. I was too busy fighting a useless battle against idiots who hold sway over yinzer nation.

Why I'm a Pirates Fan

Pat over at WHYGAVS (words I've been using probably a little too often recently) has a fantastic post regarding the championship match up in the Pittsburgh Sports Blog Tournament. If you don't know, it's WHYGAVS going head to head against BucsDugout to take the crown away from the reigning champ, The PensBlog (go vote!).

It's just a random internet voting contest, but it really is unbelievable that the two final blogs are Pirates oriented. It's really easy to write off this franchise because of it's recent history (17 years) and current state, but I think this really demonstrates the passion for baseball not just in Pittsburgh, but for Pirates fans in general (yes, there are actually some Pirates fans out there who do not currently live in Pittsburgh).

The Pirates, after all, are the city's oldest sports franchise (by far) and have won five championships in their history. Some of the all-time greats have worn Pirate uniforms: Wagner, Clemente, Stargell, Bonds, Kiner, Waner, Traynor, and Mike Benjamin (just kidding about that last one). This is a storied franchise that has been around a lot longer than the past 17 years, and people do connect with that, young and old (no matter what Bob Smizik says).

But that's really besides the point. I remember listening to a podcast between Dave Dameshek and DJ Gallo in which they were discussing Pittsburgh sports. Gallo brought up the whole notion about being from Pittsburgh and the obligation towards supporting local franchises just because of birth place (I believe his actual words involved, "I mean, if the Pittsburgh Opera was just terrible, should I be following it and supporting it just because I do the same with everything else Pittsburgh?").

It was a legitimate question to ask. Life is short, and in these times, so is money. So you have to allocate your resources accordingly. Being a Pirates fan is an intense commitment; each game is about three hours long, and there's 162 games.

But besides my obvious support of the current direction of the club, my question to most is, what else are you going to do? If you're taking the time you might be watching a Buccos game and spending it more worthwhile (reading, socializing... God, there are so many more productive things to do than watch sports), I applaud you, and I just wish I had your same discipline and motivation.

But if you're like me, and your life is dependent on sports (particularly Pittsburgh sports), not only do I say God help you, but more importantly, what else are you going to do? Are you going to throw away your blood and heritage because of a bad run of management? Are you going to root for the Phillies, or even worse, the Indians?

This is a shitty argument, and when I was thinking out this post it seemed a lot more coherent and convincing. I mean, no one should invest anything based on the conclusion of, "Well, you got nothing else."

But if you're not going to listen to the logical arguments me and other Pirate bloggers (including BucsDugout and WHYGAVS) present about the current direction of the PBC, then really, this is my only other option.

'08 vs '10 Continued; Pitchers

Yesterday, I looked at the everyday players from the '08 team and compared them to the projected '10 everyday players. Today, I'll look at the pitching staffs.

Something was bothering me after I posted yesterday. I guess it's because I didn't really address the problem I had with Smizik's piece. The premise of Smizik's post was Pirates manager John Russell and his "outrageous" belief that this year's roster is the most talented he has ever had since he began in 2008. Let's forget that Smizik tries to bring economics into the mix for no reason whatsoever and focus on the meat of the post.

I clearly disagreed, so I looked at what that roster in 2008 looked like going into the season and how they performed. Then I compared that information to the current roster and how they are projected to do. I picked the '08 team, because that was the team Smizik pointed out in the comments section below his post (I cannot stand how he posts in bold on other people's comments; why not just make a separate comment yourself?).

Despite my initial reaction that the '10 everyday lineup was more talented than the '08 everyday lineup, my conclusion was the opposite. Clearly, it was the pitching (spoiler alert, it is!). But the more I thought about it, the more I believe that my assertion was correct. The '10 lineup is more talented. They may not be more valuable, but they are definitely more talented. That '08 lineup was filled with guys that had either reached or surpassed their peak, while the '10 lineup is filled with guys who have yet to reach their peak (with Doumit and Iwamura as the lone exceptions, and possibly G. Jones). The '10 lineup is much younger, which means it is far less proven than that '08 lineup, but also means that they have potential to be better. It certainly doesn't mean that they will be better, but given the pedigree of these guys there is reason to think they may be above average/all-star players (Clement, LaRoche, McCutchen, and Milledge have all been top prospects in baseball at some point in their career). Xavier Nady was a top pick, but the rest of the '08 lineup was filled with overachievers like McLouth, Bay, Wilson, Sanchez, and Adam LaRoche.

I could easily be churning bullshit just to support my argument, but I think pedigree, age, and minor league performance should be taken into account. In all of those categories, this 2010 lineup looks a lot more potent than before. And if these guys live up to that potential, it will only prove that this bunch is much more talented than any Bucco team in recent history (like, 17 years). Well, maybe I shouldn't go that far. Although looking back at those teams, the real problem has been pitching during the streak, which includes the 2008 staff, one of the worst in team history (6th to be exact).

Ace: I am using this term quite loosely, but for arguments sake, let's just look at Paul Maholm than as compared to now. 2008 was supposedly Maholm's breakout season when he had a 3.71 ERA, and then he took a step back in '09 with a 4.44 ERA, so obviously he's going to get worse, right? Actually, Maholm has gotten better every year since '06, posting a better FIP every year (I'm going to be using FIP a lot, so read up here, it's basically a run average that is based on K, BB, and HR- things that the pitcher is independently responsible for). In '08, Maholm was worth 2.8 WAR, and is projected to pretty much duplicate this past season with a 3.3 WAR season in '10. He will be just 28 in this upcoming season and there is no reason to see regression as he's been durable and he has a pedigree of improvement. I would actually rather have the '08 Maholm, because he would be younger and more valuable, but the'10 Maholm is more "talented" and will perform better than he did two years ago. '10

Second Starter: And this is where the gap widens. Let's stick with someone who will be on both teams. Zach Duke was not as bad as his 4.82 ERA played him out to be in '08, as he put up a 4.40 FIP over 185 IP, which calculated as a 2 WAR pitcher, but he improved this past year and should be better than a 2 WAR pitcher this upcoming season unless he falls apart (the fans have him projected for a 2.8 WAR season). The biggest difference between the two Dukes is the defense he has behind him, and this year's should be much better than that '08 defense, despite missing Jack Wilson. It remains to be seen, but having Milledge/McCutchen instead of Bay/McLouth in the outfield will turn a lot of hits into outs, and extra-base hits into singles. '10

Third Starter: I should have said this is really where the gap widens. Ian Snell was coming off a great '07 season and was rewarded with a nice fat contract. And then he went out and put up a 1.4 WAR season in '08, despite his 5.42 ERA (he suffered the most from that terrible outfield defense in '08, with a FIP of just 4.57). This was the start of a complete destruction to Snell's career and he is now Seattle's problem (although the Bucs are still paying his salary). Despite people's excitement for Ross Ohlendorf, Charlie Morton is the better pitcher. Morton put up a 1.2 WAR this past season despite pitching only 97 innings. The fans are projecting Morton for a 2.5 WAR season, while others have some good things to say about him. I don't think it's that hard to see that Morton is more talented than Snell was in the '08 season. '10

Fourth/Fifth Starter: I'm lumping these guys together to show how lackluster the rest of the rotation was for the Pirates in '08. Tom Gorzelanny amazingly threw up a 6.35 FIP over 100 IP (good for -1.0 WAR!). And then everybody remembers Matt Morris, or, as I like to call him, Dave Littlefield's last F-U to Pirates fans. Morris made five starts, pitching 22.1 innings of 7.03 FIP baseball. On top of those two studs, we threw out guys like Phil Dumatrait (actually not terrible over 11 starts, just below average), Jeff Karstens (despite the Perfect Game, he started nine games with a 4.77 FIP), Jason Davis (I remember one good start out of four, 4.90 FIP), Ross Ohlendorf (not good at all when he came over in the Nady trade, 5.29 FIP in five starts)... This is where it gets interesting; John Van Benschoten (former first round DL bust, got five starts, managed an amazing 8.42 FIP... you have to be striking no one out, walking every other batter, and letting up a HR an inning to get that high of a FIP), Yoslan Herrera (five starts, an amazing 9.82 ERA despite just a 4.88 FIP... the defense must have been taking a cigarette break when he was on the mound), and then lastly, The Great Jimmy Barthmaier (three starts, 8.07 FIP, one hell of a name).

I really shouldn't have to say that Ross Ohlendorf, despite not pitching as well as his ERA in '09, will put up thirty starts (hopefully) that will be better than any thirty starts put together by these schleps. Ohlendorf was worth only 1.1 WAR this past season, while the fans have him at 2.1 WAR for this upcoming year -if he can keep the ball in the park, I think it's doable. And then we look at guys like Daniel McCutchen/Kevin Hart/Brad Lincoln... hell, even Virgil Vasquez will be better than what the Pirates threw out there every fifth day in '08.

'10

Bullpen: This is tough, because Matt Capps was damn good in '08, and as was Damaso Marte. John Grabow had a solid ERA (2.84), but his FIP (4.54) showed him to be lucky (because God knows the Pirates were not playing good defense behind him). But other than that, the Bucs were giving way too many innings to guys like Tyler Yates (73.1 IP/4.24 FIP- actually that's not too bad, I think it was that he started the season so well, and then became the "Eraser" in the last few months), Franquelis Osoria (60.2 IP/5.04 FIP), Sean Burnett (56.2 IP/5.16 FIP), T.J. Beam (45.2 IP/5.23 FIP), and Denny Bautista (41.1 IP/5.09 FIP). And you know what that added up to? A league worst 4.78 FIP in 567.2 IP, worth a league low 4 WAR. That is abysmal.

Let me amend what I said at the beginning of this section: this is easy. There is no way the '10 bullpen will be that bad... it's just not possible. Please tell me it's not possible... Well, instead of making the argument, Matt Bandi did it for me over at Pittsburgh Lumber Co. He has this year's bullpen as being about middle of the pack, which isn't anything special, but it must be better than the garbage we tossed out there in 2008.

'10

Done and done. Just based on the pitching staff, there is absolutely no way the '08 roster was more talented than the upcoming '10 roster (and we're not even sure how that lineup is going to shake out). So I'm gonna have to go with JR on this one Bob, which should make sense because I'm pretty excited for the talent on this year's team as well.

I don't really blame Smizik, he's not that smart, so he probably didn't look past the names on the lineup card in thinking that that '08 team was any good (McLouth, Bay, and Nady were the best offensive outfield in baseball at certain points in the season; too bad they were where singles go to become triples), but it doesn't excuse the fact that their defense was terrible, which combined with their horrid pitching staff, led to 884 runs against (that's a mark only bested by the 2000 Buccos in the past fifty years).

If the 2010 Buccos are not as talented as the 2008 team, we are in for a longer haul than I thought. I think I can now safely say that that won't be the case, and better days are to come.

Bob Smizik's Newest Steaming Pile of Feces

Here you go.

This kind of post comes right in line with the point I've been hammering home recently, the talent we had before was not any good, which includes that 2008 team.

Will the 2010 team win more games that the 2008 team? God, I hope so. They only won 67 games that year, but like the past two years, they could have won more had they not made the Nady/Bay trades in July and then went 17-37 in the last two months of the season, but the 2008 team is the 2008 team... and they won just 67 teams. This 2010 team has yet to play a game, but we have a pretty good idea of how the roster will end up, and WHYGAVS recently took a look at how the projection systems see the Buccos playing out in the upcoming season, I agree with CHONE in that 74 wins would be a solid number. Needless to say, I don't see the 2010 Buccos being worse than a 68 win team. This team will have a better record than the 2008 team, I'll put my guarantee on it.

But wins and losses aren't the best way of measuring talent. I would think pedigree and projection would be one way to look at talent. Since Smizik used that 2008 team as an example of superior talent, let's look at how talented that team was as compared to this team. Position by position. Since there are only so many hours in a day that I can spend looking up Pirates statistics, I'll look at the position players first. Pitchers tomorrow. Note: I will be using the word talented a lot because that's the word Smizik used in his post, but I would much prefer "valuable".

Catcher: 2008 was Doumit's breakout year, when he was a beast at the plate and posted a 3.9 WAR season. I don't think Doumit will ever be that good again as that was probably his peak season at age 27. If Doumit stays healthy (huge if), he could easily put up a 2 WAR season (CHONE has him at 1.6, while the fans project him at 2.4). Either way, the 2008 Doumit was younger and better (not to mention cheaper), therefore more talented and valuable than the 2010 Doumit. Although I would take Jason Jaramillo ('10) over Joggin' Ronny Paulino ('08) any day as a backup, and considering the Pirates have an heir apparent in '09 first pick Tony Sanchez, the gap in total talent is not as far as it seems (I'll try and stick to the MLB rosters, but the gap in system depth is so startling from '08 to '10, that it is tough not to point out future cornerstones as well). ('08)

Fist Base: Despite Adam LaRoche's streaky tendencies, he was pretty consistent with the Pirates, all but for the 2008 season (mostly due to his defense that year). He was already 28 and only worth 1.6 WAR that season. Jeff Clement is a big question mark at first base, as it's not even a given that he holds down the position for the entire year. But I think he will, and I think he'll do a decent job at it, while showing why he was the 3rd overall pick in 2005. CHONE has him pegged at a 1.2 WAR season, not bad for a guy who has never had an extended big league look. Clement will be just 26 next season and probably hitting his peak, while he has a pedigree that LaRoche never had. I think this is kind of a push, although the Pirates in '10 have a backup plan in Garrett Jones. (Push)

Second Base: Freddy was pretty much replacement level in 2008, posting a .3 WAR value in an injury riddled season. He was talented enough to bounce back the next year with an average season, but he was already 30 and injury plagued by 2008 (he will never again be the player he was from 05-07). Despite Aki Iwamura's ACL injury this past season, he has never been prone to injury (although all it takes is one injury to start the domino effect). He's been pretty consistent in his time in the MLB (not to mention his consistency while in Japan), and is projected for a 2.2 WAR by CHONE/2.7 WAR by the fans. He will be 31, but I still think he is more talented now than Freddy was in '08, although that's debatable. ('10)

Third Base: No matter what your thoughts on Andy LaRoche are (I think this will be his breakout season at age 26), he will be better than Jose Bautista was in 2008 (not to mention the Andy LaRoche we got from the Dodgers in July of that year). Just don't even try and debate that. ('10)

Shortstop: Shortstop is the biggest remaining question for the Pirates in '10. Ronny Cedeno is not that good, and while Jack Wilson is no Honus Wagner with the bat, his glove makes him a very valuable SS. But even considering that, JW was worth just 1.5 WAR in '08 as 30-year old, while Cedeno is projected for a .9 WAR in '10 by CHONE and will be just 27 this season. Cedeno also has a pretty impressive track record in the minor leagues. I'm not saying he is better now than Wilson was in '08, I'm just saying there is a possibility he can put up a comparable WAR (although even I'm not optimistic, he doesn't have the plate patience, so it all depends on his glove). But I will say that Bobby Crosby in '10 will be more talented than Luis Rivas and Chris Gomez were in '08. ('08)

Left Field: Jason Bay was really good in '05/'06, but fell off mostly due to his fielding (injuries), which included his 2.9 WAR season in '08. Bay was already 29 by that time, but continues to show he can still hit, so he's got that going for him (although putting him in Citi won't help). Say what you want about Lastings Milledge, but he will be much better defensively in LF in '10 than Bay was in '08, but his bat is still a question mark (CHONE has him at just 0.7 WAR while the fans think 1.8 WAR). Can he hit for enough power and draw enough walks to make his OPS respectable for a LF? I'm optimistic, as he will be just 25 this upcoming season and has a tremendous pedigree as an amateur and in the minors. I'd still take Bay in '08 despite the injuries and the age, but don't be surprised if Milledge breaks out this year. It's closer than you think. Although that '08 team also had Nyjer Morgan on the roster who turned out be the best defensive outfielder in the game in '09... ('08)

Centerfield: McCutchen '10 > McLouth '08. Better pedigree, younger, more equipped to play center, just better. And that's not really a huge knock on McLouth, he was a 3.5 WAR player in '08 no thanks to his defense, but he was already 26. McCutchen put up a 3.4 WAR season in just 108 games this past season at age 22. CHONE has him at 3.4 WAR (so the values may be closer than we think) while the fans are more optimistic (4.7 WAR). I'm in between, say a 4 WAR at age 23, not too shabby. ('10)

Right Field: In just 89 games with the Pirates in 2008, Xavier Nady was a beast (putting up a .919 OPS), which helped him towards posting a 4 WAR season in '08. Unfortunately, he's been mediocre and injury plagued the rest of his career. He was also already 28, which probably put him at or right past his peak. But the same could be said for Garrett Jones the past season when he was 28 and put up a 2.6 WAR in a little over half a season. CHONE has him at just 1.8 WAR (the fans actually thought less, 1.6 WAR) for this upcoming season. So I guess we can safely say that Nady was better in '08 than Jones will be in '10. Although the Pirates did not have a top prospect in Jose Tabata (who they got from the Yankees in exchange for... Xavier Nady!) waiting in the wings back in '08. They also didn't have a guy like Ryan Church who could act as a backup plan just in case Jones flops. ('08)

So the way I look at it, the '08 team was more talented by a score of 4-3, with first base being a push. Considering the age comparisons and cost of the '10 team, it's closer than one would think (although cost has nothing to do with talent, just value). Even the clear '08 winners are much more closer than you would think, like Bay/Milledge and Wilson/Cedeno.

Either way, as I was writing this, I realized how futile the process was. Isn't it pathetic that I'm comparing the current team to a 67 win team from '08 just to prove a point? Especially considering that it looks like that '08 lineup was better than the current one? But then I looked at the '08 pitching performance and realized I had a long way to go in evaluating just how bad that '08 team was.

Pitchers tomorrow, and please allow yourself a full hour between a meal and reading the post, because it ain't pretty.

(Note: all statistics were taken from FanGraphs and Baseball-Reference, and I stole that photo from the PensBlog, who probably stole it from someone else, so who cares)

Quite Important

As I'm watching this terrible Pens game on this snowed-in but beautiful Saturday afternoon (this game is truly terrible; for some reason, when the Pens go down, they go down ugly by taking really dumb penalties), I saw this post from Charlie over at BucsDugout on locking up star players.

I'm not going to go over the whole post, you should read it yourself, but it is something that most passive fans don't realize, throughout the Pirates 17-year drought, the problem has not been money, it's been the players.

I love it when Pittsburgh sports' fans who don't know their ass from their elbows when it comes to the Pirates use the excuse of, "Well, the Pirates just trade their good players before they become expensive." What good players? As I've said before, and the BD post points out, the only players we have traded in recent years who retained their effectiveness or improved after leaving would be Aramis Ramirez and Jason Bay, while the jury is still out on the guys we traded this past year; although I'm not optimistic because most of them are old/injury-prone (in the past 17 years, you could put Jason Schmidt, Esteban Loaiza, Bronson Arroyo -waived, and Jon Lieber onto that list as well).

The Pirates problem has been (and will be, until proven otherwise) their inability to produce their own talent. Even the guys on recent rosters who can be called decent/good came from trades rather than system development; I'd say Duke, Maholm, Doumit and McClouth would be the exceptions.

The Pirates need to draft and develop their own talent (and by talent, I mean good players, not Ronny Paulino) before we can worry about locking them up. And even then, it's very important that they lock up the right players.

And here is another good reaction to the PPG's "Open Letter" from Tim at BUCCOFans. This is by far, the best reaction.

If you're bored, Deadspin has a list of some good Super Bowl related reading, including Dr. Hunter S. Thompson's take on sports writers (spot on). Deadspin has been doing this of late, and it's been quite the breath of fresh air. Here's the previous one (including a great clip about people from Georgia).